By Mel Gurtov
The global citizen agenda for 2025 is very much like that for 2024—and probably for some years afterward. It includes global warming and related environmental crises; US-China tensions; challenges to democracy and peace in Europe and Africa; interstate and intrastate violence in the Middle East; and nuclear weapons upgrading. A new addition to this list is another Trump administration, which creates the potential for exceptional chaos in the US and worldwide.
War
Wars in Europe and the Middle East show no sign of ending. At extraordinary cost in lives and the economy, Russia plows ahead in its effort to exterminate Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has been declared a war criminal by the International Criminal Court, but he isn’t going to be arrested. He shows no interest in anything other than a victor’s peace.
With Donald Trump’s help, he may get it—a sizable chunk of Ukraine’s territory in exchange for a halt to the fighting. European supporters of Ukraine will be under mounting pressure at home to bring the war to a close and reduce Europe’s cost. It’s possible that 2025 could be the year Ukraine is forced to barter land for peace, as Pres. Zelensky lately says he’s open to discussing if Ukraine can be protected from future Russian aggression.
In the second year of Israel’s war with Hamas, we once again hear talk about a cease-fire agreement that would lead to an exchange of hostages for prisoners. Maybe, but the main stories in 2025 will be, 1) Israel’s expansion into the occupied territories, Lebanon, and Syria, 2) the terrible destruction in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis there, both of which will take generations to repair, and, 3) turmoil in Israeli politics as the far right under Benjamin Netanyahu seeks not only to establish a Greater Israel by force of arms but also to resurrect its anti-democracy project in the name of judicial reform.
Politics in Iran and Syria is bound to be tumultuous—in Iran, as contending forces debate support of Hezbollah, confronting Israel, the nuclear option, and relations with the US; and in Syria, as the victorious HTS decides what kind of society should replace Assad’s terror regime and what Syria’s relations should be with the major powers and with its Middle East neighbors.
Asia: China and the Rest
The Chinese characterize the last few years in world affairs as turbulent. US-China relations are something of an exception: Beijing considers relations to have largely stabilized thanks to Joe Biden. But with Donald Trump’s election, China is preparing for renewed economic and strategic competition in 2025.
Trump has promised to resume the trade war he began in his first term, and which Joe Biden continued. But this time around, Trump will aim at a decoupling of the two countries’ economies despite the significant costs to consumers and US industries that many economists are predicting.
China will not back down in this war; far from it, China has plenty of trade and investment options in Europe and the Global South. Tension over Taiwan, already considerable during the last year, is likely to ratchet up as the trade war with the US intensifies and Taiwan’s new president reinforces his message on the island nation’s sovereignty.
Elsewhere in Asia, a civil war in Myanmar may be decided in the new year between the military junta and various ethnic and political rebels; South Korea will have a new president following the failed martial law order of the current president; and India’s Narendra Modi will be buffeted by increasingly undemocratic rule and unsteady relations with China along their border.
North Korea will, as usual, be unpredictable: Will its close security ties with Russia make Kim Jong Un more of a risk taker, or will he again be amenable to a deal with Trump that gains sanctions relief in return for putting his nuclear arsenal in a verifiably safe warehouse?
Trump’s Foreign Policy
US foreign policy under Donald Trump will follow the pattern of his previous administration, but against a different background than in the past. The making of foreign and national security policy will be much more centralized, with the intelligence community and the State Dept. marginalized.
But US policy will also be more unpredictable with Elon Musk acting like a second President. The China threat will be front and center, relations with Russia will become friendlier, and strong-man rule will be admired.
Climate change, human rights, good relations with Canada and Mexico, security coalitions in the Asia Pacific, foreign economic aid, and adherence to international law will all have low priority. By contrast, a racist immigration policy, balancing of the trade deficit, attraction of foreign investment, and energy policy crafted by the oil and gas industry will have Trump’s (and Musk’s) total attention and support.
Traditional allies around the world, understanding full well how Trump operates, will be looking to their own resources when it comes to everything from dealing with Russia to combating climate change.
On climate change, international agreements will now have one less proponent as Trump again pulls the US out of the Paris Agreements on global warming limits. (He’s also expected to pull the US out of the World Health Organization.)
The recently concluded COP29 summit included pledges of $300 billion in annual contributions to low-income countries to fight climate change, but those pledges, insufficient as they are, will have much less chance of being honored with the US absent from the table.
Trump will also undo many of Biden’s environmental protection accomplishments at home. The Biden administration has just promised, for instance, that the US will slash planet-warming pollution at least 61 percent compared with 2005 levels by 2035, but that promise stands no chance of being kept with Trump in charge.
The Environment and Nuclear Weapons
The global environmental picture is unlikely to improve even with greater international cooperation. In the past year, a global plastics treaty has failed, methane buildup in the atmosphere has risen dramatically, and glaciers in the Antarctic and Greenland are melting at record paces, contributing importantly to global sea level rise. China, despite being a leader in alternative energy, is an outlier as a developing country: It will be the top carbon emitter by century’s end.
The production and refinement of nuclear weapons, rather than their elimination, is another enduring feature of the global agenda. The US, Russia, and China are engaged in expensive nuclear weapon modernization programs rather than renewing or expanding nuclear arms control agreements. North Korea is enlarging its nuclear weapon missile arsenal. One or more Middle East countries might join Iran in having nuclear energy facilities that could potentially produce a weapon.
Democracy Under Assault
Perhaps the single most disturbing global trend is the evisceration of democracy around the world. One-party states and authoritarian political systems are those most likely to defy international law, repress human rights, and ignore the environment and social injustice.
Almost needless to say, we are now the primary example of democratic decline. How the American example influences politics abroad will be important to watch in 2025. The more Trump and the MAGA Republicans undermine democracy at home, the stronger are the oligarchies, kleptocracies, and far-right parties abroad.
If constitutions, presidential restraint, and the rule of law are discounted in the “arsenal of democracy,” they are likely to be discounted by authoritarian rulers and extremist parties elsewhere. The drift to the right in many parts of Europe—Hungary, France, Romania, Turkey, Georgia, Italy, and possibly Germany—will surely be strengthened by Trump’s win here. (Look, for example, at Elon Musk’s endorsement of the AfD, an anti-immigrant party with neo-Nazi leanings, in next year’s national election.)
Human rights in China will also be affected. Unrestrained by criticism from the US, the European Union, or the United Nations, China will reinforce its status as the surveillance state in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet as well as in the main provinces, and as an exporter of surveillance equipment and police training to some 50 countries.
In Short
Taken together, these events show that the planet’s insecurity has deepened. War, political upheavals, a climate crisis, and reliance on nuclear weapons have all taken turns for the worst. Repression and social injustice continue to thrive.
Here and there, we can find notable advances in dealing with poverty and global warming. And there are plenty of sound ideas for conflict prevention and resolution, arms control, and fulfillment of basic human rights. But the most powerful people and organizations remain self-interested and, thanks to advances in technology, able to flood the world with misinformation and provocations. The new year promises to be particularly challenging for global-minded citizens.
Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University and blogs at In the Human Interest.
This article was sent on December 28, 2024 to peacevoice editors by Tom Hastings on behalf of Mel Gurtov.